New polling in Sunak and Starmer constituencies shows impact of cost of living and NHS crisis in leaders’ own seats

New research funded by 38 Degrees supporters has lain bare the cost of living crisis and NHS waiting times in Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer’s own seats – and the impact this is expected to have for both men at the polls on 4 July.

Amongst key findings from the polling of 507 of Rishi Sunak’s constituents in Richmond and Northallerton, and 502 of Keir Starmer’s in Holborn and St Pancras, by Survation on behalf of 38 Degrees, conducted over the last 10 days and published today (23 June):

• Rishi Sunak’s majority in his own seat looks set to crumble perilously in his new Richmond and Northallerton seat. Of those surveyed, 39% were intending to vote Conservative, 28% Labour and 18% for Reform – giving Rishi Sunak an 11 point lead. In contrast, had the 2019 election been held in the new Richmond and Northallerton seat, Parliament figures show Rishi Sunak would have won more than 63% of the vote.

• The polling showed the impact of the two big issues dominating the election on the constituents of the would be next prime minister. The results make clear that whoever wins the election, there is urgent work to do to bring NHS waiting times under control and address the cost of living – for their constituents and voters across the country. 

• Over half (52%) of Keir Starmer’s constituents have had difficulty getting a GP appointment within the last year, whilst over a third (37%) had waited six months or longer for NHS treatment in the same period. Amongst Rishi Sunak’s constituents 1 in 3 (34%) had struggled to get a GP appointment and almost 1 in 4 (23%) had waited longer than six months for NHS treatment within the last year. 

• Starkly, the majority of voters in both constituencies agreed that their quality of life was getting worse (51% of voters in Richmond and Northallerton, and 72% in Holborn and St Pancras). In the PM’s seat, 44% say they feel worse off since the last election compared to just 14% who feel better off; similarly in Keir Starmer’s seat 48% feel worse off compared to 16% who feel better off. 

• The painful impact on the lives of voters both men hope to be re-elected to serve was laid bare when it came to the cost of living: in the PM’s constituency, within the last year, 1 in 3 have been cutting down on basic necessities like food (33%) and heating (36%) to save on bills, whilst in Keir Starmer’s constituency more than 1 in 10 voters have used a food bank (13%). 

In the seats of both men who would be the next PM, one thing is clear: voters want change. Whether they live in a rural seat like Richmond and Northallerton, or in an urban seat like Holborn and St Pancras, voters are struggling to cope with the cost of living crisis, and with getting the care they need from the NHS. The people who vote in the seats Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are standing in have the same message for our next PM: we cannot go on like this.

With polling day drawing closer, voters will make their own mind up about who to vote for and the best way to get the change they want for themselves and their families. What is clear is that whoever wins on 4 July will have to move fast and act boldly to deliver the big change the country wants to see, so that people see change for the better playing out in their own lives. In the minds of the public across the country – and those that live in Richmond and Northallerton and Holborn and St Pancras, there will be no time to lose.