What’s on Matthew’s Mind: listening to voters in Runcorn

We spent time last week listening to voters in Runcorn, through a poll of the constituency, and three focus groups in the seat (with our friends at Survation and More in Common). I spoke to Times Radio about what we heard.

This is a complex situation and I am not going to pretend there are easy answers – but here’s a few thoughts on what voters seemed to be saying on the basis of this research:

1. At the general election people voted for change – for help with the cost of living crisis and to get the NHS up off its knees. Voters in these focus groups don’t think that’s happening yet. And if you don’t deliver what people voted for, you’ll be punished.
2. The cost of living dominated these focus group discussions – many people are really struggling and even those who aren’t in a precarious position want to be able to just live a little. Immigration came up in these groups too of course but interestingly when people talked about immigration it was through the lens of perceived impact on housing costs and the NHS being under strain, not about immigrants themselves. In one part of the discussion, participants were asked what change they want to see before the end of this parliament. Help with the cost of living and rebuilding the NHS dominated plus mentions of crime and a mention of social care. People might have concerns about immigration but what drives their thinking is what’s happening in their own lives.
3. The Government is getting some credit for improvements in the NHS – it wasn’t all doom and gloom for Labour. Some of the answer to their troubles is to better promote the things the Government is doing that people like. Everyone in these groups loved the big increase in the minimum wage for example. But it’s not top of mind for folks – one participant praised the policy but said they’d only heard about it because their flatmate had a pay rise.
4. Ultimately sometimes a problem isn’t a comms problem it’s a problem problem. The winter fuel cuts and disability benefit cuts make life harder for people when they thought Labour would help make things a bit easier. There’s nothing to gain from going further and faster if you’re going in the wrong direction.
5. There’s no doubt Nigel Farage had a great night on Thursday. And he’s very obviously part of the political set up now. One thing that will be interesting is how he and Reform handle the responsibility. Farage didn’t have any responsibility when it comes to the Brexit mess of the last few years. But Reform runs a swathe of councils now. They’ve already said they’ll oppose jobs being created in their areas if those jobs are in renewable energy. I’m not sure being against new jobs is what people voted for but we’ll see.

Voters don’t feel they’re getting from the government what they expected. It’s up to the govt to decide whether or not to listen to that warning and act or continue on as they have been.