Ready for change: New 38 Degrees polling revealed

Matthew McGregor, CEO, 38 Degrees

Today, as the Labour Party conference kicks off in Liverpool, we are publishing a new set of constituency level data, which we’ll be splashing across the media and using to send a clear message to politicians: voters are desperate to see the change in their lives they were promised at the general election last year. 

The polling, carried out for us by pollsters Survation,  found that: 

• In a whopping 92% of constituencies, more people feel worse off than better or the same as last year. Across the country, just four constituencies report feeling ‘about the same’ and 46 constituencies report feeling ‘better off’ (35 of which are in London).
• When asked about the NHS’s performance, on average 49% rated it as ‘struggling’ and 11% as ‘not fit for purpose’. 27% of voters thought it was ‘improving’ and just 9% rated it as ‘excellent’.
• If there was a General Election today, Labour would win 191 seats and Reform 293 seats. 
  
  The poll also reveals the areas voters most urgently want to see Government action on are the NHS (42%), followed by the cost of living (41%). Immigration comes third at 36%. In 345 constituencies, the NHS was cited as the top voter issue; with the cost of living chosen in 268 constituencies; and immigration first in just 17 seats. 
  
• The polling – carried out with over 8,000 voters  at the end of August – also identified five voter groups on the centre and left which together form a ‘progressive majority’ – i.e. a path to victory for  a party that can persuade them to lend their vote. They vary in demographics, priorities and political outlooks but all score 7-10 on likelihood to vote for at least one progressive party (Labour, Liberal Democrats, Green, SNP, or Plaid Cymru).
  
• The five voter groups are: 
  
  Open-hearted Collectivists (25%: strongly pro-immigration, community-minded)
  
  Guarded Localists (19%: cautious on immigration, focused on national cohesion)
  
  Pragmatic Youth (28%: the youngest cluster, moderate and middle-ground in most views)
  
  Rooted Traditionalists (16%: older, economically on the left but socially conservative)
  
  Cosmopolitan Optimists (12%: urban, highly educated, affluent, pro-state and optimistic about the future).
• 
  These groups have varied outlooks on immigration, but this isn’t an overwhelming factor in how they will vote. Instead, they’re all united by a focus on the NHS and the cost of living. Bold action on improving our NHS, ensuring people have more money in their pocket and a growing economy are what really matter to them.

Read our full briefing including the profiles of these voter groups here.

Our assessment is that at the heart of this polling is the story of a country that was crying out for change at last year’s general election, but who haven’t seen the positive change so many voted for take hold in their own lives yet.

With more people feeling worse off than better off than a year ago, and NHS services yet to improve for many of us, no wonder many voters are feeling impatient. But the results of this poll also makes clear that the outcome of the next election is not a foregone conclusion. Voters are looking for big, bold changes, and whilst immigration is on people’s minds, they told us it’s less of a priority than fixing the NHS and easing the cost of living. 

Setting out ambitious plans that will result in tangible change people experience in their own lives – from being able to quickly and easily see an NHS dentist, to having enough cash left on a Saturday night for a takeaway – could soon shift the dial on how voters feel as they look ahead to the election. Voters, and 38 Degrees supporters are hungry for change – and we’ll keep banging the drum for that change to come around harder and faster.